Going To The Fair:
(Fragment from Tracy Kidder: The Soul of A New Machine -Chapter 13)
Cybernetics:
Norbert Wiener coined the term
Cybernetics in order to describe the study of "control and
communication in the animal and the machine". In 1947 he wrote that
because of the development of the "ultra-rapid computing machine.....
the average human being of mediocre attainments or less" might end up
having "nothing to sell that is worth anyone's money to buy" Although
Wiener clearly intended this as a pleas for humane control over the
development and application of computers, many people who have written
about these machines' effects on society have quoted Wiener's statement
as though it were a claim of fact; and some, particularly the
computer's boosters have held the remark up to ridicule -"See it hasn't
happened."
The Post-cybernetic non-revolution:
Since Wiener, practically every kind of
commentator on modern society, from cartoonists to academic
sociologists, has taken a crack at the sociology of computers. A
general feeling has held throughout: that these machines constitute
something special, set apart from the all the others that have come
before. Maybe it has been a kind of ethnocentrism, a conviction
that that the new machines of your own age must rank as the most
stupendous or the scariest ever, but whatever the source, computers
have acquired great mystique. Almost every commentator has assured the
public that the computers bringing on a revolution. By the 1970's, it
should have been clear that
revolution was the wrong word
. And it should not have been surprising to anybody that in many cases the technology had served as a prop to the status quo.
Artificial intelligence:
"Artificial intelligence" had always
made for the liveliest of debates. Maybe the name itself was
preposterous and its pursuit, in any case, was something that people
shouldn't undertake. Maybe in promoting the metaphorical relationship
between people and machines, cybernetics tended to cheapen and corrupt
human perceptions of intelligence. or perhaps this science promised to
advance the intelligence of people as well as machines and to imbue the
species with a new, exciting power.
Silicon Life:
"Silicon-based life would have a lot of
advantages over carbon-based life", a young engineer told me once. he
said he believed in a time when the machine could "take over". he
snapped his fingers and said: "just like that." He seemed immensely
pleased with that thought. To me, though, the prospects for truly
intelligent computers looked comfortably dim.
Privacy:
To some, the the crucial issue was
privacy. In theory, computers should be able to manage, more
efficiently than people, huge amounts of a society's information. In
the sixties there was proposed a "national Data bank", which would,
theoretically, improve the government's efficiency by swallowing
agencies to share information. The fact that such a system could be
abused did not mean that it would be, proponents said; it could be
constructed in such a way as to guarantee benign use. Nonsense, said
opponents, who managed to block the proposal; no matter what the
intent or the safeguards, the existence of such a system would
invariably lead towards the creation of a police state.
Employment:
Claims and counterclaims about the
likely effects of computers on work in America had also abounded since
Weiner. Would the machines put enormous numbers of people out of work?
Or would they actually increase levels of employment? By the late
seventies, it appeared, they had done neither. Well, then, maybe
computers would take over hateful and dangerous jobs and in general
free people from drudgery, as the boosters like to say. Some anecdotal
evidence suggested, though, that they might be used extensively to to
increase the reach of top managers crazed for efficiency and thus would
serve as tools to destroy the last vestiges of pleasant, interesting
work.
Terrorism:
Dozens of other points of argument
existed. Were computers making nuclear war more or less likely? had
society's vulnerability to accident and sabotage increased or
decreased, now that computers had been woven inextricably into the
management of virtually every enterprise in America?
The Invisible Revolution:
Wallach and I retreated from the fair,
to a cafe some distance from the Coliseum. Sitting there, observing the
more familiar chaos of a New York City street, I was struck by how
unnoticeable the computer revolution was. You leave a bazaar like the
NCC expecting to find your perceptions of the world outside will have
been altered, but there was nothing commensurate in sight -no cyborgs,
half machine, half protoplasm, tripping down the street; no armies of
unemployed, carrying placards denouncing the computer; no TV cameras
watching us -as rule, you still had to seek out that experience by
going to such places as Data general's parking lot. Computers were
everywhere, of course -in the cafe's beeping cash registers and the
microwave oven and the jukebox, in the traffic lights, under the hoods
of the honking cars snarled out there on the streets (despite the
traffic lights), in the airplanes overhead -but the visible differences
somehow seemed insignificant.
A Hidden Hand?
Computers had become less noticeable as
they had become smaller, more reliable, more efficient and more
numerous. Surely this happened by design. Obviously, to sell the
devices far and wide, manufacturers had to strive to make them easy to
use and, wherever possible, invisible. Were computers a profound,
unseen, hand?
Greed-extenders?
In "The coming of Post Industrial
Society", Daniel Bell asserted that the new machines introduced in the
nineteenth century, such as the railroad train, made larger changes in
"the lives of individuals" than computers have. Tom West liked to say;
"lets talk about bulldozers. Bulldozers have had a hell of a lot bigger
effect on people's lives". The latter half of the twentieth century,
some say, has witnessed an increase in social scale =in the size of
organizations, for instance. Computers probably did not create the
growth in conglomerates and multinational corporations, but they
certainly have abetted it. They make fine tools for the centralization
of power, if that is what those who buy them want to with them. They
are handy greed-extenders. Computers performing tasks as prosaic
as the calculating of payrolls greatly extend the reach of managers in
high positions, managers on top can be in command of such aspects of
their business to a degree they simply could not be before computers.
A Helping hand?
Obviously, computers have made
differences. They have fostered the development of spaceships -as well
as a great increase in junk mail. The computer boom has brought the
marvelous but expensive diagnostic device known as the CAT-scanner, as
well as a host of other medical equipment; it has given rise to
machines that play good but rather boring chess, and also, on a larger
game board to, to a proliferation of remote controlled weapons in the
arsenals of nations. Computers have changed ideas about waging war and
about pursuing science, too. It is hard to see how contemporary
geophysics or meteorology or plasma physics can advance very far
without them now. Computers have changed the nature of research in
mathematics, though not every mathematician would say it is for the
better. And computers have have become a part of the ordinary conduct
of business of all sorts. They really help in some cases.
Efficient?
Not always, though. One student of the
field has estimated that about forty percent of commercial
applications of computers have proved uneconomical, in the sense that
the job the computer was bought to perform winds up costing more to do
after the computer's arrival than it did before. Most computer
companies have boasted that they aren't just selling machines; they're
selling productivity. ("We're
not in competition with each other," said a PR man "We're in
competition with labor") But that clearly isn't always true. Sometimes
they're selling paper-producers that require new legions of workers to
push that paper around.
Fun!
Coming from the fair, it seemed to me
that computers have been used in ways that are salutary, in ways that
are dangerous, banal and cruel; and in ways that seem harmless if a
little silly. But what fun making them can be!
Uncontrollable?
A reporter who had covered the computer
industry for years tried to sum up for me the bad feelings he had
acquired on his beat. "Everything is quantified," he said. "Whether it's
the technology or the way people use it, it has an insidious ability
to reduce things to less than human dimensions". Which is it, though;
the technology or the way people use it? Who controls this technology?
Can it be controlled?
Professional Restraint?
Jacques Ellul, throwing up his hands,
wrote that technology operates by its own terrible laws, alterable by
no human action except complete abandonment of technique. More
sensible, I think, Norbert Weiner, prophesied that the computer would
offer "unbounded possibilities for good and for evil." and he advanced,
faintly, the hope that the contributors to this new science would nudge
it in a humane direction. But he also invoked the fear that its
development would fall "into the hands of the most irresponsible and
venal of our engineers." One of the best surveys of the studies of of
the effects of computers ends with an appeal to the "computer
professionals" that they exercise virtue and restraint.
Tracy Kidder: The Soul of A New Machine
ISBN: 0-380-59931-7
(Chapter 13: Pages 240 - 244)
1981